Poll Reveals Surprising Support for Mass Deportations in 2024 Elections, Fueling Divisions Over Immigration Policies
Immigration is a top issue in the upcoming elections, with increased support for conservative policies, including mass deportations and ending birthright citizenship. Advocacy groups are concerned about ICE arrests of immigrants with pending criminal charges, adding to the debate.
BY JENNIFER HERNANDEZ ON MAY 30, 2024
Public opinion on immigration policies in the U.S. is divided. According to a recent survey conducted by the Harris Poll, 51% support mass deportations. Philadelphia’s Advocacy groups call for a more nuanced and fact-based conversation around immigration policy. They emphasize the need to address unjust and racist narratives underlying the current system. (Graphic: U.S. Immigration by Simrinsi /Wikimedia)
Immigration at the southern United States border has emerged as a key issue ahead of the upcoming election, with a new Axios Vibes survey revealing that half of those surveyed (51%) support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. The survey conducted by the Harris Poll showed that of those in favor, 42% are Democrats. The survey was conducted from March to April 2024 and involved 6,251 US adults.
New Axios Poll finds increase in support for mass deportation and conservative immigration policies. (Graphic by: Némesis Mora)
The highest support for mass deportations came from Republicans, with 68%, whereas the lowest was among Black respondents, with 40%. Moreover, the poll found that support for mass deportations decreases with younger generations, with 35% of Gen Z and 48% of millennials.
Significant changes in immigration policies have been implemented in several Republican-led states in recent months. For instance, a new proposal in Tennessee mandates law enforcement agencies to collaborate with federal immigration authorities upon discovering individuals residing in the country without legal status. Iowa has followed Texas’ lead by passing a bill that permits the state to apprehend and deport those who enter the U.S. unlawfully. Additionally, Georgia has enacted a law that compels jailers to verify immigration status, and Florida’s governor has signed a bill that escalates prison sentences for undocumented immigrants found guilty of felonies or driving without a license.
Furthermore, thirty percent of Democrats, as well as 46% of Republicans, now say they wish to end birthright citizenship, a right guaranteed under the 14th Amendment.
Philadelphia advocacy groups respond
Advocacy groups in Philadelphia are raising concerns about immigration policies and enforcement, with a particular focus on the impact of ICE arrests on immigrants with pending criminal charges as they leave local courthouses. These groups are calling for a more nuanced and fact-based conversation around immigration policy, emphasizing the need to address unjust and racist narratives that underlie the current immigration system.
“Free Migration Project advocates for an end to all detention and deportation. We call for the abolition of ICE and all immigration restrictions. We oppose ending birthright citizenship, since that would open the door to human rights violations - including imprisonment, family separation, torture, and death - on a massive scale,” said David Bennion, an immigration expert and Executive Director of Free Migration Project in Philadelphia to ¡Presente!
Illustrated by the Axios poll, Americans are warming to former President Trump’s immigration policies, spurred by a record number of illegal border crossings and a relentless messaging war waged by Republicans. Since his presidency, Biden has failed to shift the immigration narrative, with the Axios poll revealing that 32% of respondents blame his administration for the crisis, outranking any other political or structural factor.
There's been a surge in migrants, leading to overcrowded facilities and logistical challenges, sparking debate about the administration's immigration policies. Graphic by: Némesis Mora
“The Biden administration is ill-equipped to shift the narrative in a pro-immigrant direction because President Biden himself has bought into the racist, anti-immigrant myths and stereotypes propagated by the Tanton network,” said Bennion.
For example, Biden faced backlash after referring to a migrant as “an illegal” during his State of the Union Address in March.
“He used hateful terminology during his State of the Union Address to communicate solidarity with xenophobic political forces and reinforce anti-immigrant sentiment,” said Bennion. “He is not the one to fix this. Perhaps other elected officials can take up the cause of immigrant rights, but there are very few who have shown political courage on this issue in recent years.”
The Axios poll found discrepancies between Americans’ perceptions of immigration and the reality established by data. For example, 64% of respondents incorrectly believe that immigrants receive more welfare benefits than they pay in taxes.
Bennion highlighted the need for a more nuanced and fact-based conversation around immigration policy. “Many of these issues are discussed in the context of an unjust and racist narrative that underlies the current immigration system,” he said. “When we understand that ‘borders maintain hoarded concentrations of wealth accrued from colonial domination while ensuring mobility for some and containment for most,’ as Harsha Walia says, we see that the false narratives that immigration increases crime rates and harms needy citizens are red herrings designed to play on our worst instincts.”
Although 56% of respondents believe that illegal immigration is linked to a rise in U.S. crime, Axios reports that “While individual instances of violent crime by undocumented individuals drive headlines, data doesn’t show that undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit crimes.”
However, advocacy groups in Philadelphia have expressed concerns over ICE arrests of immigrants with pending criminal charges as they leave local courthouses. On December 4, 2023, Juntos, a community-led Latinx immigrant organization, and the ICE Out of Courts Coalition held a press conference outside the Juanita Kidd Stout Center for Criminal Justice, denouncing the arrests. They demanded an investigation into how ICE obtains information about courthouse appearances and potential violations of the city’s Welcoming City Policy.
The groups further called for a written commitment from the sheriff’s office and the President Judge for the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas to not cooperate with ICE. They also called for ICE to stop any further arrests of undocumented individuals with pending criminal charges.
Bennion, who represents one of the affected clients, said, “One of our clients was arrested outside the courthouse in Philadelphia in late 2019, and he had a pending criminal matter. The case was later dismissed, but he was detained by ICE for a year during the worst of the [COVID-19] pandemic. We had hoped that this abusive and harmful practice had ended with the Trump administration, but we hear now from colleagues that it is even worse now under President Biden.”
“ICE officers should not arrest noncitizens who have pending criminal charges, as it eviscerates due process protections in both the immigration and criminal legal systems,” added Bennion.
According to a report by the Washington Post, ICE deported over 142,000 immigrants in 2023, which is almost double the number deported in 2022. The increase in deportations is attributed to the high numbers of migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border. In addition, 18,000 family units were deported last year, surpassing the 14,400 removed under the Trump administration in the fiscal year 2020. Federal officials claim that the removals adhere to the Biden administration’s enforcement strategy, which the Supreme Court upheld in June.
“Unfortunately, Biden has detained more people than Trump ever did,” assured Erika Guadalupe Nuñez, the Executive Director of Juntos to ¡Presente! “Under his presidency, there’s more detention beds in our state than under Trump. We’re also seeing a ton of more pickups. And the local immigration office is essentially operating very aggressively. And we’re seeing that they don’t feel any accountability or responsibility for their actions.”
At the end of December 2023, Pennsylvania had a 75,978 immigration case backlog, of which only 39% (30,006) were cases with representation, reports TRAC.
“ICE’s targeted enforcement in our courts is depriving defendants of due process and victims of accountability,” said District Attorney Larry Krasner in a December 2023 statement, adding that the threat of deportation makes it harder for victims of domestic violence and other crimes to trust the courts.
On February 29, 2024, immigrant groups rallied at City Hall in Philadelphia to warn the Biden administration of the electoral consequences of immigration policies. Leaders from various immigrant organizations expressed concerns and demands for policy changes to earn their support at the polls. (Photo courtesy of Jasmine Rivera/Pennsylvania Immigration & Citizenship Coalition)
Similarly, a diverse array of immigrant groups in Pennsylvania orchestrated a powerful rally at City Hall on February 29. Their voices echoed, warning the Biden administration about the potential electoral consequences of reverting to Trump-era immigration policies. They fervently urged President Biden to exercise his executive power, putting an end to the scapegoating of immigrants and the operation of all immigrant detention centers. Representatives from various immigrant groups passionately voiced their concerns about the administration’s policies during the event.
Adrianna Torres-Garcia, Deputy Director of the Free Migration Project, said in a press release on February 29 that President Biden had already initiated steps to remove families seeking asylum through the Family Expedited Removal Management Program (FERM), which The New York Times reports has tracked over 19,000 people since May. The report states that more than 1,500 individuals have been deported, while around 1,000 have absconded by removing their ankle monitors. The remaining individuals have either passed their initial screenings or are still undergoing the process. This information was obtained from data provided by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
However, Torres-Garcia and others stressed that the administration’s efforts to establish a clear and accessible path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants are paramount.
Dramatic drop in voter interest
The recent NBC News poll revealed a significant voter interest shift in the upcoming presidential race. The poll’s revelation that most voters hold negative views of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump provides crucial insight into the current political climate
The findings underscore two crucial factors that could significantly sway the election: inflation and immigration, the nation’s primary concerns. Additionally, the potential disruption of a stable presidential contest by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy, with over six months remaining until Election Day, underscores the many factors that could reshape the political landscape.
Notably, the breakdown of high-interest voters by demographics shows that 70% of self-identified Republicans and 65% of Democrats express high interest in the coming election, compared to only 48% of independents. The least interested group is younger voters, with only 36% of voters ages 18 to 34 rating themselves as highly interested.
Despite both candidates’ low voter interest and opposing views, the poll shows that Trump is narrowly ahead of Biden by two points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%. This suggests that Trump’s appeal is strongest among men, white voters, and white voters without college degrees. Biden’s top advantages are among Black voters, women, and Latinos, indicating that Biden’s support is concentrated among these demographics, which could also play a crucial role in the election.
However, it’s important to note that these findings are not definitive predictions, and voter interest could shift in the coming months. This highlights the necessity for ongoing monitoring and analysis of the political landscape in the lead-up to the election.
The Latino Vote Matters
The latest 2024 Pew Research poll reveals a significant shift in the Latino voter landscape, with an estimated 36.2 million eligible Latino voters this year, which could be immensely important for President Joe Biden’s political journey. According to the data, Biden now secures 52% of Latino voters, marking a notable increase from Donald Trump’s 44%. This departure from previous national polls is particularly significant, and Biden’s campaign is taking a proactive stance, engaging Latino voters earlier than in the previous campaign’s strategy. This shift in the Latino voter landscape underscores the need for updated political strategies.
The UnidosUS study, a comprehensive analysis of Latino voter trends, underscores the importance of effective engagement with Latino voters. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have Latino voter shares in single digits but still have the potential to make a difference in winning a state’s electoral votes. With so much in play, local outreach and messaging will be crucial in winning over new voters and possibly bringing some Latino voters back into the Democratic fold. A consistent campaign presence could make a significant difference in these states.
Inflation, the escalating cost of living, jobs, the economy, and healthcare consistently rank as the top three issues Latino voters are eager for elected officials to address. The study further reveals that food and necessities, housing/rent, and gasoline are the primary concerns regarding inflation, while jobs with better pay and better benefits top other economic concerns for Latino voters.
Latino voters are deeply concerned about the country’s trajectory, with a significant majority believing that the U.S. is on the wrong track. Notably, the majority of Latino voters do not see either party as effective champions of their most pressing concerns. This underscores the potential impact of the Latino vote on the country’s direction, which could significantly influence the policies and priorities of future administrations. This necessitates immediate and effective engagement.
Most Latinos plan to vote in the 2024 Presidential election, with 57% confident they will vote and another 16% likely to vote. However, many have yet to make a firm commitment to do so. The study suggests significant outreach opportunities to engage with Latino voters and close the participation gap across different demographic groups within the diverse Latino electorate.
The analysis by the Economic Policy Institute shows that foreign-born workers, including many Latinos, contributed to around 50% of the recent growth in the U.S. labor market between January 2023 and January 2024, the country’s rebound from the pandemic. Vivian Chang, Executive Director of Asian Americans United, emphasized immigrants’ enormous impact on economic growth in the past year during the City Hall rally in a press release. She argued that immigrants had contributed significantly to the country’s economic development, and the administration should not ignore their concerns.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan agency that provides economic and budgetary analysis to the U.S. Congress, projects that the U.S. labor force will have grown by 5.2 million people by 2033, primarily due to net immigration. This influx of immigrants is expected to boost the U.S. economy by an additional $7 trillion over the next decade.
“Hispanics are the second largest group of voting-age Americans and a critical factor in the race for the White House, Congressional balance of power, and beyond,” said Clarissa Martínez De Castro, Vice President, UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative, in a press release. “In a landscape of close elections, Hispanic voters are difference-makers and are putting an exclamation point on the need for parties and candidates to meaningfully engage them and respond to their priorities, which are topped by economic concerns.”
